My last article on COT (Commitment of Traders) gold and silver futures data and price moves was September 30, however, I published an alert on October 16 because I saw an outright position REVERSAL indicator that told me the Commercials were about to attack gold and silver price:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-urgent-update-huge-commercial-reversal-get-out-now/
So what has happened since the REVERSAL?
Down, down, down, deeper into the PM depression that I have written about for almost 4 years.
Here is a quote from almost 4 years ago:
“If silver is $15 at the bottom and $1000 at the top then that is 6,700% just based on today’s math. But if there is the great deflation that I theorize, then what was $1000 goes to nothing so what becomes $1000 is actually many, many multiples of that $1000 as compared to those who have nothing. That is multiplying 1000 times not just 67 times in respect to those who have nothing and the coming revaluation of the world wealth in terms of an asset backed trade system of currency (SDR).”
Allow me to refine those figures a little bit.
Conversely, if silver crashes, then rebounds to $15ish, and all national currencies in the world go to ZERO then he who is holding an ounce of silver at $15 is 1,500 TIMES more wealthy than those who go to ZERO (1), relative to paper. Their real estate, property, and other hard assets, not considered.
1,500 times.
For the math challenged, add 2 zeros and move the comma 2 places to the right, to grasp the percentage increase over the guy holding worthless fiat paper…
150,000.
Or 150,000% gain. One penny (in silver) is 100% more than the guy who loses everything in his fiat penny (or greater).
So, $1,000 in silver ounces becomes 100 X 1,000 times greater or 100,000 times or 10 MILLION percent greater than the asset-less, paper fiat money holder who loses everything.
So, a paper fiat billionaire goes to ZERO while someone holding $1,000 of silver is 100,000 times more wealthy?
Did I get the theoretical math right? (sometimes when messing around with massive percentages it is easy to slide too many ZEROS in one direction or another especially when it is a Sunday afternoon and my sound engineer and I are in the studio at the same time I am writing this and we are working on a parody tune about Barack Obama…).
Our President is NOT a friend of any of the people, by the way (but I am preaching to the choir here at SD). He is a friend of the Global Elite and massive global corporations like Monsanto (aka MonSatan).
So,if I am off a ZERO or 2, I blame it on trying to walk and chew gum at the same time… 😉
Back to the downward slide, much of it in both gold and silver has been without fanfare except the apparent price raid last Friday but the jury is still out on that one to see if it is a true price raid or price will return to the higher level prior to the single hour attack and it reveals itself as a price mix positioning maneuver.
Looking at the latest numbers in silver, we see as of COT close last Tuesday, Commercials held a more than 2.5 to 1 short to long ratio. Silver Speculators are close to 4 to 1 longs over shorts but their size is dwarfed by the short position size of the Commercials. Small Speculators are slightly less than 2 to 1 longs over shorts. What we do not see in the latest numbers are the silver Specs picking up more shorts as price descends and that has been their trait for the last year+. They are depressed. Severely depressed. Articles appeared in Bloomberg about their losses on their metals bets and that was primarily in the short positions, which I told readers at SD long before Bloomberg ever noticed that the Specs playing that game was a hopeless task.
Over in gold, we see simply amazing numbers. The number of Spec longs sold almost matches the Commercial shorts covered, while the Small Specs did almost nothing, total wise, that we can see! That is statistically a bit more than amazing, actually. This means the Small Specs are holding their longs below their short stops.
Also, we see gold Large Specs picking up shorts on the way down, unlike their silver counterparts, and those Commercials picking up the long side of the bet on the way down. At least a few of the Large gold Specs are still under the false notion they have the technical savvy to compete in the short game with the Commercials who own the house, the yard, and neighborhood, and the whole town.
All they have to do to have fantastic success is contact me, write an absolutely huge check, and I tell them the absolute secret of how to destroy the Commercials, once and for all. But, they are IVY league grads mostly and would never consider taking advice from a guy who lives in the midst of corn and soybean fields in the Wilderness of Southern Illinois.
Pride goeth before a fall?
You bet.
So what happens next? There is no clear indication in the price movements to indicate a clear up or down from here…
But look at the situation of the silver Large Specs. They are slightly more than 4 to 1 long. What a potential rape, pillage, and total sack by the Commercials to cover most or all of their short positions and buy long on the way down as the Large Specs automated traded tries to pick up massive short positions in the shark feeding frenzy for profits near the bottom…
Over on the gold side, there are just under 120,000 long contracts more than their short contracts with fairly close stops to be tripped in an all out Commercial short covering price raid. The exact same scenario exists right now for both silver and gold Commercials to totally obliterate the Speculators, once and for all.
Still reporting from the Wilderness of Southern Illinois and not taking a long, extended, near the equator vacation just yet…
Shalom!
m
https://www.facebook.com/marshall.swing.9
www.TheExodusFund.com (just about to come back online with full investor arbitrage)
PS… I view tomorrow, 11/9 and 11/24 as very serious possible dates for the Global Economic Crash. 11/11 is certainly a possibility but something called Veterans Day stands in the way of a certain major stock market, although international currency markets are open, as far as I know. A total international currency collapse may not need the U.S. stock market open. But this is material for another article Monday morning.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxlf.htm
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
