Nearly 3 years ago, with silver trading near $40/oz and gold near all-time nominal highs, SD gold & silver analyst Marshall Swing shocked the PM community by warning that silver would crash to $15/oz, then rocket past $1,000/oz as fiat collapses!
Fast forward to Oct 31st, 2014, and silver has indeed crashed to a $15 handle.
Does the ONLY precious metals analyst who forecast silver’s crash from $50 to $15 still believe a silver moon-shot past $1,000/oz is coming along with a full-fledged fiat currency collapse?
Take heart silver investors. The one analyst who saw this coming remains as bullish as ever:
Marshall Swing first warned SD readers in March of 2012 that silver could be headed to $15/oz:
It’s about time for me to write my piece on $15 silver and $500 gold, I think.
It seems quite some people get into the market not having the strength to withstand the volatility even though what drew them in was the logic behind the PM story and its validity in time of hyperinflation as a store of wealth.
When silver is $500-$1000 those who sold at $26 will be sorry because they will have nothing in the end after the crash…
It does not matter what happens with the world’s economy, like some are talking, (such as Faber), about commodities crashing with the slowdown in the global economy. When the wealth of the world rushes into gold and silver when there is nothing left it will not matter that PM wealth might have devalued 50-75% in the crash.
Fake wealth will stay down while real PM wealth will soar.
If silver is $15 at the bottom and $1000 at the top then that is 6,700% just based on today’s math.
But if there is the great deflation that I theorize, then what was $1000 goes to nothing so what becomes $1000 is actually many, many multiples of that $1000 as compared to those who have nothing.
That is multiplying 1000 times not just 67 times in respect to those who have nothing and the coming revaluation of the world wealth in terms of an asset backed trade system of currency (SDR).
So $15 silver ounce at the bottom is really $15,000 in terms of relative wealth, if my logic is correct.
Catch my drift?
Marshall repeated his call that silver was headed to $15/oz in early March of 2014:
Well, SD readers, we have gotten a mild price attack on the metals but nothing as severe as what I think is to come.
Notice, despite the commercials discarding large open interest contracts in both shorts and longs they even deepened their total open interest net short position and are very close to 200,000,000 net ounces short.
My calculations say they can crash silver price to $15 if that is their target.
Looking at the charts, I believe the COT period is defined by a mild attack on silver occurred by our lovely Blythe Masters and her underlings. In my humble opinion I suspect she pulls the strings no matter where she is located.
It appears in the numbers that Commercials took major profits at or near the top and then forced price down with their traditional short covering reaping the rewards of contracts in the money on both ends.
What is very interesting is those small silver speculators who give the appearance of mirroring the commercial’s maneuvering and discarded longs and shorts in hopefully the same order reaping fairly short term profits. In order to reap the reward of the bullion banks serpents one has to be as wise as a serpent!
Very interesting that the large speculators appear to have been caught with their pants down and the totals of the numbers do not reveal they did anything much but remember COT numbers are totals shown on a weekly basis and never reveal everything about what happened. What happened can only be known by following price and volume action on a day to day basis as well as following the CFTC daily reports. Couple that with logical assumptions developed over a long period of time, proven or disproven theories, and you might have a chance of anticipating what is going to happen in this marketplace.
Otherwise, stackers try to buy on the low dips and hold for a long time waiting patiently for the metal to assume its rightful place in price reflection by virtue of demand and world events.
Notice, despite the commercials discarding large open interest contracts in both shorts and longs they even deepened their total open interest net short position and are very close to 200,000,000 net ounces short. My calculations say they can crash silver price to $15 if that is their target.
However, also notice those commercial swap dealer’s totals reflect them being eerily silent during the reporting period. They appear to have merely stood back and let JPM drop price.
While there was a huge selloff in open interest in silver, in gold new open interest contracts were added.
Almost 5,800 new contracts came into being and notice the share of the commercials new short positions! 6,355 new shorts so they are happy the silver bullion bank lowered price on both metals by virtue of traders following trends and they have increased their net short position by many ounces.
Again, here as in silver, it is the producer merchant bullion bank who is making the big move short but here they have loaded up on the short side!
Looking at the price action in gold we see the price went down some then came right back up to the same levels, even higher during the COT week contrary to the action we see in silver which went down and stayed down.
We see some long buying by the large specs but they were forced out of many short positions. I suspect they bought shorts on the way down and the bullion banks realized this, jumped price back up after buying longs and forced the specs out of those new shorts. Just my guess!
Could price soon rise again? Sure, but the short term trend is down and I suspect any long attempts by speculators will get slammed.
My thoughts are the markets have decided the Ukraine situation is not as bad as some would have you believe and is not going to escalate and the equities markets will resume their upward march and metals will get slammed in the coming weeks.
See you in the comments section!